Which Party will win the Karnataka Assembly Election 2018?
Karnataka is the debut of the 4 states that will undergo elections in the year 2018. The Party BJP & Congress will be in a battle to achieve big seats in 224 constituencies in the state of Karnataka and will be seeing to score over 113 seats to victory by a majority and take a government in the state.
BJP has been encouraged by the latest election results in the state of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh and need their triumph run to remain in Karnataka also. Karnataka presently has Indian National Congress as the governing party that won 122 seats out of 224 and having a big government in the state while the assembly polls were conducted earlier in 2013.
This time there are 3 big parties are the contestants for 224 constituencies namely BJP, INC & JD(S).
The opportunities of any party getting a majority looks thin and there are good causes that a coalition government could be made in Karnataka this election.
A pre-poll survey held by Suvarna News stated that neither the Congress nor the BJP will find a perfect majority. Of the 224 constituency seats, the pre-poll prediction offered eighty-eight to Congress, eighty-two to Bharatiya Janata Party, forty-three to JD(S) and eleven to others.
BJP has leased another survey agency called Creative Center for Political and Social Studies (COPS) which places the opposition BJP with 113 seats. This is the right number of seats the BJP had took when it swept to rule in the year 2008 under the stewardship of former CM BS Yeddyurappa.
The caste puzzle in comparison to the state of Gujarat, gives a balance that is shaken enough to the Congress, that counts the minorities, Dalits & other backward castes (with an exception of the 8 per cent Vokkaligas who favour the JD(S) among its voters. But, communal polarisation factor might be a game-changer in Karnataka for the Bharatiya Janata Party.
Jignesh Mewani will campaign for individual candidates and will attempt to take away few Dalit votes from BJP. Dalits constitute over 24% people of the whole state.
Karnataka is also the sole state in the South that has had a BJP govt. from 2008-2013, chaired by BS Yeddyurappa, DV Sadananda Gowda & Jagadish Shettar. In its 5 years of government, the BJP had 3 Chief Ministers.
BS Yeddyurappa was questioned to resign by BJP on the corruption charges. There presided an internal party rift also and Yeddyurappa resigned and made his individual party. He later arrived and rejoined BJP.
Whereas BJP has a strong base in Urban regions, the rural factions are shaken directing Congress. As per Election Commission data, there are about seventy urban and 154 rural assembly constituencies in Karnataka state. Rural and Urban part will impact the results extra.
BJP tenure was noted with corruption and scandals and people still own this in their minds. Yeddyurappa isn’t a believed option for CM’s designation and there is a rift for placing his name as a chief-minister candidate within and outside the party.
Siddaramiah’s Congress so far a corruption free and has strong base in rural areas.
There was an internal survey that showed that JD(S) could find around 20–25% votes this poll. This could head to a divide among votes to form a coalition government.
Congress has a big foothold in higher constituencies but BJP has been functioning more on ground level to form their voter base in Karnataka repeatedly. For BJP, a bit more hard effort from Amit Shah and Narendra Modi could shape matters BJP’s way this time also.
However, in a latest interview of a spokesperson from JD(S), opportunities of shaping a coalition government with BJP was ruled out as they had harder experiences with BJP in the past.